Key points
- The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, edged down to 52.0 in October from 52.1 in September, beating the 51.6 median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists, Reuters reported.
- The reading kept factory activity above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for an eleventh straight month, the longest run since mid-2021, InvestingLive reported.
- Output grew at its fastest pace in six months, led by makers of investment goods, while new orders rose for a seventeenth month — but export order growth slowed to a three-month low, Reuters reported.
- The private survey contrasts with Saturday's official manufacturing PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics, which fell to 49.3, back into contraction, InvestingLive reported.
- The two surveys ask different firms: the private survey covers around 650 manufacturers and leans towards exporters, while the official survey samples more than 3,000 companies, InvestingLive reported.
Two surveys of China's factories now point in opposite directions. A private survey published on Monday put manufacturing activity in expansion in October, two days after the official survey put it in contraction — and the gap between them is now the clearest sign of how uneven China's factory recovery looks. Read more: China's factory activity slips back into contraction as October PMI falls to 49.3
The private measure, the RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI compiled by S&P Global, edged down to 52.0 in October from 52.1 in September, Reuters reported. That beat the 51.6 median forecast in a Reuters poll, and it kept the index above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for an eleventh consecutive month — its longest run above that line since mid-2021, according to InvestingLive's report on the release. The data were released at 01:45 GMT on Monday, InvestingLive reported.
What the private survey found
Output was the bright spot. It grew at its fastest pace in six months, Reuters reported, with growth spread across consumer, intermediate and investment goods, and strongest among investment goods makers, InvestingLive reported. New orders rose solidly for a seventeenth month, but the new orders index eased to 53.3 from 53.4 in September, and growth in export orders slowed to a three-month low as makers of consumer and intermediate goods eased while investment goods producers accelerated, Reuters reported.
Price pressure ran through the report. Output prices fell after rising in September, as intense competition forced firms to cut prices to support sales, Reuters reported, while export charges dropped for the first time in nearly a year, InvestingLive reported. Hiring rose marginally for a second straight month, the backlog of work increased for a ninth month, purchasing activity grew at its fastest pace since February, and stocks of purchased goods rose at their strongest pace in five months, Reuters reported. Business confidence stayed positive but slipped to a nine-month low, with some firms citing elevated input prices and stiffer competition, Reuters reported.
Why the two surveys disagree
Saturday's official manufacturing PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics fell to 49.3 in October, putting factory activity back into contraction, InvestingLive reported. The private survey's 52.0 reading does not overturn that figure — it measures a different slice of the economy. The private survey covers around 650 manufacturers and leans more towards export-oriented firms than the official poll, which samples more than 3,000 companies, InvestingLive reported. A survey weighted towards exporters can look healthier than one weighted towards the broader factory base, and vice versa, so the two numbers are best read side by side rather than as rivals.
That distinction matters for what comes next. If export demand keeps cooling — export order growth is already at a three-month low — the private survey's healthier headline may narrow towards the official one. If domestic demand steadies instead, the official survey may climb back above 50. Either way, neither survey on its own settles whether China's factories are growing or shrinking; together, they describe a factory sector split between a resilient export-facing core and a softer broader base.
What to watch next
The next test comes with November's figures from both surveys, which will show whether October's split was a one-month quirk or the start of a wider gap. Until then, the honest summary is short: one survey of China's factories says expansion, the other says contraction, and the difference between them is itself the story — a factory sector that is growing in some places, shrinking in others, and cutting prices to keep orders flowing.
| Measure | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Private (RatingDog) PMI, October | 52.0 | S&P Global, via Reuters |
| Private PMI, September | 52.1 | S&P Global, via Reuters |
| Reuters poll median forecast | 51.6 | Reuters |
| Official (NBS) PMI, October | 49.3 | National Bureau of Statistics, via InvestingLive |
| New orders index, October | 53.3 (from 53.4 in September) | Reuters |
| Months above 50 (private survey) | 11 — longest run since mid-2021 | InvestingLive |
| Release time | 01:45 GMT, Monday 2 November 2026 | InvestingLive |
Updates & corrections
Published 2 November 2026.
No updates or corrections have been made to this article since publication.
Sources
- Reuters, “China factory growth slows in October as export orders ease, private PMI shows”, 2 November 2026, on the RatingDog PMI at 52.0 in October against 52.1 in September, the 51.6 Reuters poll forecast, the 50 growth-contraction line, output growth at its fastest in six months, the new orders index at 53.3, export order growth at a three-month low, falling output prices, marginally rising employment, the ninth-month backlog rise, purchasing growth since February, and business confidence at a nine-month low: reuters.com
- InvestingLive, “China private factory PMI at 52.0 beats forecasts, output growth fastest since April”, 2 November 2026, on the 52.0 reading, the eleventh straight month above 50, the 01:45 GMT release time, the official PMI at 49.3, the roughly 650-firm private sample against the official survey's 3,000-plus firms, output growth led by investment goods, and export charges falling for the first time in nearly a year: investinglive.com