Key points
- Spain's gross domestic product grew 0.6% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter, according to the National Statistics Institute's preliminary estimate published on Friday 30 October 2026, in line with the average forecast of analysts polled by LSEG.
- Compared with the same quarter a year earlier, output was up 2.7%, against 2.6% in the second quarter — also in line with analysts' estimates.
- Growth edged down from 0.7% in the second quarter, but Spain still outpaced France, whose economy contracted 0.1% in the same quarter, and analysts had expected Germany to be flat at best.
- Spain's central bank had already raised its outlook earlier in October, forecasting growth of 2.6% for 2026 as a whole, the same as in 2025, and 2.2% in 2027 — and Friday's figures keep that outlook on track.
Spain's economy has kept growing while its largest eurozone neighbours stall — and the fact that the figure landed exactly where forecasters expected is itself part of the story. The National Statistics Institute's preliminary estimate, published on Friday morning, put third-quarter growth at 0.6%, down a tenth of a point from the 0.7% recorded in the second quarter. Analysts polled by LSEG had expected 0.6%, and on an annual basis the 2.7% expansion also matched expectations. For an economy that has spent much of the year defying predictions of a slowdown, meeting the forecast counts as confirmation rather than disappointment. Read more: France's economy shrinks 0.1% in third quarter as exports slump and investment falls
The key figures
| Measure | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| GDP, third quarter 2026, quarter on quarter | +0.6% | National Statistics Institute preliminary estimate |
| GDP, third quarter 2026, year on year | +2.7% | National Statistics Institute preliminary estimate |
| Expected growth, quarter on quarter | +0.6% | Average forecast of analysts polled by LSEG |
| Expected growth, year on year | +2.7% | Average forecast of analysts polled by LSEG |
| GDP, second quarter 2026, quarter on quarter | +0.7% | National Statistics Institute |
| GDP, second quarter 2026, year on year | +2.6% | National Statistics Institute |
| France GDP, third quarter 2026, quarter on quarter | −0.1% | INSEE preliminary estimate |
| Bank of Spain forecast for growth in 2026 | 2.6%, the same as in 2025 | Banco de España |
| Bank of Spain forecast for growth in 2027 | 2.2% | Banco de España |
Why it matters
The contrast with the rest of the bloc is what gives Friday's release its weight. Before the data, economists at Société Générale had tipped Spain to lead the eurozone's four largest economies in the third quarter, ahead of France and Italy, with Germany flat — and the French figures published earlier on Friday confirmed the first half of that picture, with France contracting 0.1% as exports slumped. Spain's central bank, which raised its growth forecasts earlier in October, now expects the economy to expand 2.6% across 2026, matching 2025, and 2.2% in 2027 — a pace well above what the European Central Bank expects for the eurozone as a whole. For a bloc wrestling with high energy prices and a war-driven energy shock, Spain's continued expansion is the exception that frames the wider slowdown.
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What happens next
Friday's figures are preliminary and will be revised as more complete data arrive, so the 0.6% should be read as a first estimate, not a final verdict. The wider picture fills in later on Friday, when Germany's third-quarter estimate and the eurozone-wide flash estimate are published: they will show whether Spain's resilience is shared across the bloc or stands out from it. Europe Unfolded will report those figures when they are published.
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Updates & corrections
Published 30 October 2026.
No updates or corrections have been made to this article since publication.
Sources
- Reuters, "Spain's economic growth edges down to 0.6% in third quarter", 30 October 2026, on the National Statistics Institute's preliminary data, the 0.6% quarterly rise after 0.7% in the second quarter, the 2.7% annual rise, both in line with the average forecast of analysts polled by LSEG, and the Bank of Spain's raised forecasts of 2.6% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027: reuters.com
- InvestingLive, "Spain Q3 preliminary GDP +0.6% vs +0.6% q/q expected", 30 October 2026, on the National Statistics Institute release, the 0.6% quarterly and 2.7% annual figures against expectations, and the prior readings of 0.7% and 2.6%: investinglive.com
- Société Générale research, via FXStreet, "Euro area: Modest GDP growth and mixed inflation", 26 October 2026, on the pre-release expectation that Spain would lead the eurozone's large economies at 0.6% quarter on quarter, followed by France and Italy, with Germany flat: fxstreet.com
- INSEE preliminary estimate for French third-quarter 2026 GDP, published 30 October 2026, on France's 0.1% quarterly contraction, as reported in Europe Unfolded's own article on the release: europeunfolded.pages.dev