Key points
- With 95% of the vote counted in New Zealand's general election, National leads Labour by less than a tenth of a percentage point — 29.3% to 29.2%.
- The governing coalition of National, ACT and New Zealand First is projected to hold a wafer-thin majority — 67 of 129 seats on the New Zealand Herald's count, 66 on the Associated Press's count.
- The left bloc holds a combined 56 seats — Labour 35, the Greens 16 and Te Pāti Māori 5 — while the centrist Opportunity Party has cleared the 5% threshold and would enter parliament with seven seats.
- Parliament will expand beyond its usual 120 seats because of the overhang, and National will have no list MPs — deputy leader Nicola Willis is among those out.
- The result is not final: special votes, including ballots cast by New Zealanders overseas, are still to be counted, and the official result is due on 27 November.
New Zealand's general election has produced no clear winner, with the preliminary count leaving the governing coalition on the brink of a wafer-thin majority that could still slip away once special votes are counted.
With 95% of the vote counted, Christopher Luxon's centre-right National Party and the opposition Labour Party, led by Chris Hipkins, are almost level — National on 29.3% of the party vote and Labour on 29.2%, according to the count reported by Te Ao Māori News. The Post put the gap at about 1,400 votes, with National on 29.43% and Labour on 29.35% late on Saturday night in New Zealand.
Both main parties polled under 30% — a result the Associated Press described as punishing for the two parties that have long dominated New Zealand politics, after an election dominated by a struggling economy and voter disillusionment. Al Jazeera reported that the contest had been dubbed the "supermarket election", with grocery prices and supermarket competition a key battleground.
A majority of one — or none
| Measure | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Votes counted (preliminary) | 95% | Electoral Commission count, reported by NZ Herald / Te Ao Māori News |
| National party vote | 29.3% | Te Ao Māori News |
| Labour party vote | 29.2% | Te Ao Māori News |
| Coalition seats projected | 67 of 129 (NZ Herald); 66 (AP) | New Zealand Herald; Associated Press |
| Left bloc seats projected | 56 (Labour 35, Greens 16, Te Pāti Māori 5) | New Zealand Herald |
| Opportunity Party | 6% of the vote; 7 seats projected | Te Ao Māori News; New Zealand Herald |
| Seats needed for a majority | 65 | Associated Press |
| Official result due | 27 November 2026 | Electoral Commission, reported by Al Jazeera |
The three-party coalition led by National — with the libertarian ACT party and the populist New Zealand First — is projected to hold 67 of the 129 seats in the expanded parliament, according to the New Zealand Herald's tally: 42 for National, 13 for ACT and 12 for New Zealand First. The Associated Press put the coalition total at 66 seats, with 41 for National, and noted that the figure fluctuated as the count continued. Either way, the margin is one or two seats above the 65 needed for a majority.
On the left, Labour is on course for 35 seats, the Greens for 16 — their best-ever result, according to the Associated Press — and Te Pāti Māori for five Māori electorate seats, a combined 56. The centrist Opportunity Party, which has cleared the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament, would hold seven seats and may hold the balance of power, the Herald reported.
The overhang that cost National its list MPs
Parliament will be larger than its usual 120 seats because National and Te Pāti Māori are expected to win more electorate seats than their party vote entitles them to — the overhang. The Herald put the expanded parliament at 129 seats; Te Ao Māori News put it at 130. National alone is on course to win six extra electorate seats, including Tāmaki, Nelson and possibly Hamilton East.
That overhang has already ended the parliamentary careers of some of National's most senior figures. Because the party's electorate wins exceed its party-vote entitlement, it will have no list MPs — so deputy leader Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop and Paul Goldsmith are all out of parliament, the Herald reported.
What happens next
The outcome may not be known until the official results are released. Special votes, including ballots cast by New Zealanders living overseas, are still to be counted, and the Electoral Commission's final verified tally is due on 27 November. The Herald reported that late votes and special votes are expected to favour the left, and both Mr Hipkins and New Zealand First leader Winston Peters urged caution about interpreting the results too early.
Polling stations opened at 9am on Saturday and closed at 7pm, with nearly 3.8 million people eligible to vote, the Associated Press reported. Voting had begun on 26 October. There is no timeframe for when a government must be formed, Al Jazeera reported. Europe Unfolded will report the official result as it is confirmed.
Updates & corrections
Published 7 November 2026.
Sources
- New Zealand Herald, "Election 2026: Overhang and Opportunity in box seat as results deadlocked on night", 7 November 2026, on the 95% count, the party-vote shares, the 67-seat coalition projection, the left bloc's 56 seats, Opportunity's seven seats, the overhang, and the list MPs out of parliament: nzherald.co.nz
- Te Ao Māori News, "Whakatau 2026: National-led coalition holds narrow majority", 7 November 2026, on the 95% count, National 29.3% and Labour 29.2%, the 67-seat projection, the 130-seat parliament, and that the outcome may change with special votes: teaonews.co.nz
- Al Jazeera, "Two main parties neck and neck after New Zealand vote, early results", 7 November 2026, on the neck-and-neck count, the one-seat coalition majority, Opportunity as possible kingmaker, the "supermarket election", and the 27 November final result: aljazeera.com
- Associated Press, "Conservative bloc takes a slim lead in New Zealand election that's still too close to call", 7 November 2026, on the 66-seat coalition figure and its fluctuation, the Greens' best-ever 16 seats, nearly 3.8 million eligible voters, and polling hours: bastillepost.com
- The Post, "Election 2026: No Willis, no Goldsmith and potentially no Bishop — who is in and out from the lists", 7 November 2026, on National 29.43% and Labour 29.35% late on Saturday night, the Tāmaki and Nelson electorate results, and National having no list MPs: thepost.co.nz